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Canadian Mortgages, Insurance, Investment, Tax Planning Ипотеки, Застраховки, Инвестиции и Данъчно планиране в Канада
The bank rate is now 1.25% and the deposit rate 0.75%, the bank said in a statement. Echoing comments made in previous rate hike announcements, the central bank said any further hikes increases will need to be carefully considered in light of the “unusual uncertainty surrounding the outlook.”
Canada’s economy has cooled rapidly in recent months, leaving economists mixed as to whether Governor Mark Carney would up borrowing costs this time around. Most now expect him to pause in the tightening cycle until the economic recovery, particularly south of the border, gets on a firmer footing.
The bank said that the Canadian economy was softer in the second quarter than it had expected. However, business investment and consumer demand were in line with its forecasts.
Going forward the bank said it expects business investment to rise strongly and consumer demand to be solid.
The weak spot in the outlook for Canada is the U.S. economy, home to three quarters of the country’s exports.
“In the United States, the recovery in private demand is being held back by high unemployment and recent indicators suggest a more muted recovery in the near term,” it said.
As Montreal heads into the second half of 2010, it’s clear that the city must be doing something right.
For the past seven months it has consistently exhibited stronger year-over-year job growth than all but two of the 10 largest metro areas in the country.
Job growth has been particularly strong in wholesale and retail trade (+35,200), followed by finance insurance and real estate (+25,800); health services (+17,900); construction (+17,200); accommodation and food services (+10,600); and professional and technical services (+10,200).
This strong pattern of employment growth, accompanied by low interest rates and sustained net migration, has helped to underpin housing demand in Montreal.
According to the Greater Montreal Real Estate Board, sales of existing homes are up by 10% year to date, and median single family house prices ($258,000) are up by 5% year over year.
Demand for new housing is also strong, reflected by a 32% year-to-date increase in housing starts and a 48% year-to-date rise in residential building permits over the first six months of the year.
As is the case across much of the country, the combination of dissipating pent-up demand and deteriorating affordability is causing housing demand in Montreal to cool.
But the strong year-to-date increase in residential permits should sustain new residential construction into 2011.
While the pace of residential construction appears to be down-shifting, the outlook for both industrial and commercial construction is quite strong.
According to CB Richard Ellis, a gradual increase in manufacturing demand has caused the industrial availability rates in the Greater Montreal Area (GMA) to decline by 40 per cent since the end of 2009.
Reflecting this stronger pace of manufacturing activity, the value of industrial building permits has picked up since the beginning of the year and is now +73% year to date in June.
Also, despite relatively high office vacancy rates in the GMA, it appears that stronger retail and office-based employment growth is contributing to a turnaround in commercial construction, reflected by an 8% year-to-date increase in commercial building permits.
Atlantic Canada's housing starts for 2010 are predicted to be up from last year. Moncton, New Brunswick, will see 1,080 housing starts by the end of 2010 compared to 973 starts in 2009, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s third-quarter 2010 Housing Market Outlook release.
Meanwhile in Saint John, builders expect to have put up 670 home units in 2010, a small increase versus the 659 from last year. But sales of existing homes are likely to drop by end of 2010 in New Brunswick to 6,750 from 7,000 in 2009.
Across Atlantic Canada, which includes New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland, housing activity is supposed to rise by nearly seven per cent in 2010 compared to the year before. Single-housing starts are forecasted to increase by nine per cent in 2010, as the economy continues to recover. Low vacancy rates and an aging population also suggests multiple starts should rise to five per cent by the end of the year.
The Canadian housing market is poised to strengthen after a brief slowdown, according to CIBC chief executive officer Gerry McCaughey.
In a television interview with Business News Network McCaughey said the slowdown in the Canadian housing market is healthy as it allows the industry to "catch a breath."
"The indications are Canada is doing reasonably well, the recovery in the U.S. and probably in Canada seems to be slowing somewhat, but I believe this is probably a pause," McCaughey said. "I think all recoveries from recessions have a lot of doubt and hesitation around them, and I think the main thing is for us to keep our eye on the ball for the future."
CIBC reported its Q3 earnings last Wednesday posting net profits that grew to $640 million.
Ontario housing activity tapered off in recent months and the demand will continue to slow till stabilizing in early 2011. This is according to the 2010 Third Quarter Housing Market Outlook by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
"A number of temporary factors have boosted Ontario home sales and prices from this time last year," said Ted Tsiakopoulos, CMHC's Ontario regional economist. "However, higher mortgage carrying costs, increasing supply pressures and declining first-time buyer demand will temper Ontario's housing momentum later this year and into 2011."
Other highlights of the forecast included:
- Employment market on recovery and goods sector showing signs of stability
- Ontario existing home sales will come off of peak levels; then improved affordability will boost sales later in 2011
- Ontario sales will range between 175,000 and 210,000 unit sales this year and next
- Ontario home starts expected to reach 61,525 units in 2010; and will likely range between 47,000 to 66,000 units in 2011
- Demand for single detached homes will weaken in more expensive Ontario markets
- Rising mortgage carrying costs will increase demand for apartment ownership and rental accommodation
Though home sales are slowing, prices in six of Canada's largest housing markets are in bubble territory.
Home prices are sitting at 4.7 to 11.3 times Canadians' annual income - much higher than historical comfort levels of between three and four times income, according to a report by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA). The report defines a bubble occurring when housing prices increase more rapidly than inflation, household incomes and economic growth.
"To see all of the major markets outside of that comfort zone is very unique and concerning," said David Macdonald, a research associate who wrote the report called "Canada's Housing Bubble: An Accident Waiting To Happen."
Sales have fallen by 25 per cent since reaching its peak at the begnning of the year. But canadian home prices were up 13.6 per cent in June from a year ago in Canada's major cities.
"The concern today is all six major markets, not just Vancouver and Toronto, are out of that comfort zone," said Macdonald, including Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Montreal. "All six major markets now have an average price of over $300,000."
***The CCPA is an independent, non-partisan research institute concerned with issues of social and economic justice.